Out-Predicting the Consensus (Part 2): Occam’s CPI Forecast

May 2023 CPI came in at a 4.0% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 4.1%, which was better than the consensus estimate of 4.2%. May 2023 Core CPI came in at 5.3%. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 5.3% better than consensus of 5.2%. Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform the consensus forecast on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has been correctly forecasting that inflation would be coming down at a record pace.

June 14, 2023

CPI Forecast vs Actual

Occam’s May 2023 CPI forecast was 4.1%, which came in close to the reported number of 4.0%, and better than the consensus estimate of 4.2%.

Core CPI Forecast vs Actual

Occam’s May 2023 Core CPI forecast was 5.3%, which was in line with the reported number of 5.3%, and better than the consensus estimate of 5.2%.

Source: Analysis based on occam™ proprietary AI-enhanced research platform with various data sources, including a wide range of questions asked to over 1000 respondents per day with over three years of history. Information is census-balanced and uses occam’s™ proprietary AI algorithm that ensures minimal sampling bias (<1%). Contact us for more info.

Signup for our newsletter

DISCLAIMER : This material is provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. This material is general in nature and is not directed to any category of investors and should not be regarded as individualized, a recommendation, investment advice or a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action. Investment decisions and the appropriateness of this material should be made based on an investor's individual objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors. Information is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but there is no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. All information is current as of the date of this material and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of AlphaROC as a whole. Third-party economic or market estimates discussed herein may or may not be realized and no opinion or representation is being given regarding such estimates. This material includes estimates, outlooks, projections, and other “forward-looking statements.” Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal.

AlphaROC occam case studies are for illustrative purposes only. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. The firm, its employees, data vendors, and advisors may hold positions, including contrary positions, in companies discussed in these reports. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors, or markets identified and described in these case studies will be profitable. Investors should consult with their advisors to determine the suitability of each investment based on their unique individual situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.