Impact of the First Presidential Debate
- After Joe Biden’s underwhelming performance in the first debate, occam queried voters to see if their voting intentions changed.
- Over 40% of Republicans said the debate significantly influenced their vote, likely solidifying their decision to support Donald Trump. However, only 24% of Democrats and only 21% of Independents reported that the debate had a significant impact on their voting intentions, with the majority of Independents stating it would not affect their vote.
- While the media is abuzz with claims of a significant shift in favor of the Republicans, initial data from occam suggests that the impact of the debate is more moderate. We await the next crucial datapoint from HingeVoter.ai, which will be published in the coming days, to see if voting intentions have changed among key voter groups in important swing states following the debate.
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