Retail Sentiment Cracks: Nearing a Buy Signal?
- Occam’s tracking of Americans’ 6-month outlook on the stock market shows that retail expectations continue to collapse from euphoric highs.
- Net sentiment—the difference between those expecting the market to significantly improve versus significantly worsen—is now close to net negative levels.
- Occam’s Chart of the Week on December 23, 2024, highlighted the euphoric peak (see here). A follow-up on March 10, 2025, flagged the sharp inflection lower (see here).
- Occam data shows a strong correlation (R = 0.9) between forward-looking net sentiment and current market trends, enabling users to identify emerging opportunities and risks in real-time.
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