Episode II: Jobs Number Above Expectations and Wages In Line

occam’s ML engine uses AI to predict changes in the labor market. Our data suggests job growth dropped from the high January number, but not as much as expected by consensus, and wage growth remains elevated, but in line with expectations.

March 9, 2023

Our estimate for Nonfarm payrolls is a 290k increase month over month with a forecast error of +/- 80k jobs. This is higher than the median consensus estimate of 225k, once again showcasing the trend of economists underestimating the strength of the labor market. Our estimate for Average Hourly Earnings is an increase of 36 bps month over month with a forecast error of +/- 10 bps, in line with the median consensus estimate of 30 bps. Our corresponding year over year estimate is 4.8%, also in line with the median consensus estimate of 4.7%. While we believe the job market remains robust, wage growth does seem to be moderating.

Source: Analysis based on occam™ proprietary AI-enhanced research platform with various data sources, including a wide range of questions asked to over 1000 respondents per day with over three years of history. Information is census-balanced and uses occam’s™ proprietary AI algorithm that ensures minimal sampling bias (<1%). Contact us for more info.

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Payrolls

Tracking Nonfarm Payrolls

For February, we forecast an increase of 290,000 workers

Wage Growth

Tracking Wages - YoY

From February of 2022, we forecast an increase of 4.8%

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