The back-to-back failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, as well as lingering uncertainties about the viability of First Republic Bank, have subjected regional lenders to heightened scrutiny. As others have chronicled, the confluence of three elements made for the perfect run-on-the-bank storm: 1) a backdrop of banks with significant asset-liability duration and liquidity mismatches (bond-heavy portfolios held against demand deposits); 2) a backdrop of multiple banks where a large fraction of deposit balances were in excess of FDIC coverage limits; and finally, 3) the Fed’s tardy and therefore unusually aggressive attempts to control inflation with rate hikes. Below, we query occam to evaluate how the resulting bank runs have affected consumer sentiment towards banks and preview what might lie ahead for the industry.

In early December, occam’s “looking for work” metric correctly predicted a coming increase in the Labor Force Participation Rate (“Not Safe For Work – Understanding Lag in American Labor Force Participation,” December 8, 2022), despite the fact that the LFPR had remained stubbornly below pre-COVID levels. We believe our looking-for-work metric (sampled daily) is a leading indicator for the LFPR. Specifically, we observed the following sequence: 1) a crisp upward inflection in the occam looking-for-work metric in late November / early December, followed by 2) a similarly crisp inflection in the LFPR in the early months of 2023, as those who were seeing work towards the end of the year found the employment they sought. Below, we once again consult occam™ for trends in job seeking behavior and find reassurance that wage growth will continue to be moderated by an increasing supply of labor.